Author: Chris

How will global temperatures change?  1 December 2010

Atmospheric scientists use the emission scenarios to predict how much greenhouse gas concentrations will increase in the atmosphere. They can then run Global Climate Models to predict how the temperatures will change in the future, alongside changes in other aspects of the weather like rainfall. Even medium emission scenarios predict increases in average global temperatures by 3ºC, by the end of the century.

Categories:   Climate Change  
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New UK targets  1 October 2010

The UK is part of the 27 European countries that negotiate together to agree international targets for emissions reduction. As a group we pledged to cut emissions by 20% to 30% by 2020 in the Copenhagen Accord. If the more ambitious target is adopted, this will mean that the UK will be signing up to a more ambitious 42% cut in emissions. This section shows that this will make a positive difference to global CO2 emissions. By comparison, weaker targets could see us following the worst case emission scenario until at least the 2020s.

Categories:   Emissions Mitigation  
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Some lingering concerns  

There is a lot of positive news about UK targets. If we meet them, and can persuade the rest of the world to follow suit, we could bring emissions down to the lowest modelled emission scenario. We do have a strong government department in place now to help guide and drive us to meet our emissions targets, and there are good plans to help us do this. But we haven’t tested ourselves yet.

Categories:   Emissions Mitigation  
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Plans to meet UK targets  1 June 2010

Whilst our targets look challenging, there is good reason to be optimistic that we will meet them. The UK government has made strong commitments to tackle this, and its creation of the new Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC), in 2008, which is really pushing things forward.

Categories:   Emissions Mitigation  
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Getting Political & working together  1 March 2010

Climate change is a hard subject to discuss because, whilst it is so serious and important, I can see that it goes against our basic instincts to actually deal with it. Life is tough enough, and it is in our nature to worry about the day-to-day, rather than what the world will be like in 40 years time. For all of the things that you and I do to help reduce our impact on the atmosphere, we are small fish in a large sea of people. It is obvious that we can’t sort all of this out ourselves. However, we can do a lot more if we work together; especially if we make sure that our elected leaders take the issue seriously and make sure it is a political priority to reduce our emissions.

Categories:   Action  
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Personal Action – What you can do  

Here are a few personal changes you might want to consider. There are loads of webpages and books, with hundreds ideas of things you can do to make a difference. I hope this will highlight some of the more important ideas. Hopefully the information that you have seen so far will give you a good idea about where is best to target your efforts, from reducing car / plane travel to cutting down on the amount of stuff you buy…or maybe you need to find efficient replacement for some of the things that you own.

Categories:   Action  
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Personal energy footprint  

To make the most best use of your efforts in cutting your carbon footprint, it is important for you to get things in perspective. Which parts of your life demand the most energy: is it transport or heating your home? It makes sense to focus on the “easy wins” – those actions that make the most difference for the least amount of effort.

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What does the Copenhagen Accord mean?  

Analysing the pledges that were made by 55 parties that signed up to the Copenhagen Accord, you can see that it does not make for a strong agreement to curb greenhouse gas emissions. With the Accord alone, it seems very unlikely that we will meet the limit of a 2ºC rise in global temperature. The scale of emissions will be very much determined by the growth of countries like China and India, which could have us following the highest scenarios. And it all of course assumes that countries will honour their pledges, which might not be a guarantee.

Categories:   Emissions Mitigation  
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Global emissions conclusions  

The future of global emissions is still uncertain following the Copenhagen Summit and the Accord that came from it. The pledges that countries have made to reduce emissions don’t offer strong guarantees for the future: the rich countries are not offering very impressive cuts; and carbon-intensive economic-growth, of developing nations, could allow emissions to continue along the highest emission scenario line. Talks have just started at Cancun (Mexico), which will hopefully agree stronger targets. It looks like there is little hope of us restricting global mean temperature rise to 2ºC though.

Categories:   Emissions Mitigation  
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Personal Adaptation  

Even if we manage to completely stop all emissions of greenhouse gases right now, we can’t undo the changes we have already made. We have increased the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by 50% over the past 250 years. The way the atmosphere works means that its reactions are likely to be delayed so the changes are only starting to show themselves. We will need to adapt to a changing world, and this means us as individuals as well: are you ready for heat waves; thinking about adapting your house / garden; and do you need to worry about flooding?

Categories:   Action  Adaptation